WHY MIGUEL COTTO IS A HEAVY FAVORITE SATURDAY

Betting Favorite Miguel Cotto

Betting Favorite Miguel Cotto


World middleweight (160 lb.) king Miguel Cotto returns to the ring on Saturday for the first time in a year to defend his freshly-won belt, and—unfortunately for boxing fans—Cotto will meet Daniel Geale at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn.
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The issue with the fight is not so much Geale, who is a hardworking, fast puncher. The issue is that Cotto, who has earned his stripes in the ring with the biggest names in boxing, simply outclasses Geale. Despite giving up a few inches in both height and reach, Cotto’s overall boxing technique and power is simply too much for Geale.

Premier betting site topbet has Cotto listed at -700 while Geale rests at +450. Lines on boxing matches can get more unbalanced than that, but this is entering the territory where sportsbooks in Vegas simply don’t want to take action on Cotto’s side.

If this fight goes the distance, that in itself will be considered a victory for Geale. Cotto is coming off five-straight victories via KO or TKO, and the power in both of his hands make him devastating in close. It doesn’t help that in Geale’s last loss, he didn’t get past the third round.

Geale has said he will try to play to his strengths, but chances are that even if he can throw solid flurries, Cotto will simply exploit Geale’s weak defense against counters and he’ll get caught on his heels.

If there’s a source of optimism for Geale, it is the sheer amount of time Cotto has been away from the ring since he claimed his belt. A year away from meaningful boxing can add a bit of rust. Yet, given the experience the new member of Roc Nation has, it’s hard to imagine him coming in unprepared.

The reality is that this is likely a preamble for the eventual fight between one of Cotto’s more dangerous challengers, whether that’s Canelo Alvarez or Floyd Mayweather. A quick skirmish to remind pay-per-view buyers why they like Cotto. And Vegas agrees.

WHY MIGUEL COTTO IS A HEAVY FAVORITE

5 comments

  • Good performance but lineal or not he’s not the man in the MW division with that catch weight bs. Shame Martinez never fought GGG and the crown was passed correctly because Cotto isn’t touching the God of War which is a shame as it would be a great fight. Canelo to beat Cotto but it’s going to be close I’d say

  • Last paragraph of column nailed it exactly. This and Canelo’s KO were twin halves of the same promotion. Almost a match for Don Draper’s final ad campaign for Coca Cola–strong imagery with HBO’s talking heads providing the narrative: “Don’t forget to buy the next one, boys and girls.”

  • Cotto coming at 153.6 pretty much kills the theory that making 154 had anything to do with his wheels falling off in the loss to Austin Trout.

    Man would I love to see Geale pull the upset and piss all over this sham which this Cotto-at-middleweight episode has become.

    So the question: Is Geale as good a fightr as Austin Trout. Probably not, he;s not even that much bigger or harder punching. Is it at least close enough to beat a Cotto who;s now almost 3 years older? I hope so, but I doubt it.

    There is reason to hope. Dana Rosenblat manhandling Terry Norris. Willy Wise spanking JC Chavez Sr. At some point a figher is so used up that even a 2 or 3 level difference in class doesn’t matter anymore.

    I don;t think Cotto is quite there yet. Hope to be wrong.

  • Cotto would be wise fighting Golovkin instead of Alvarez. Golovkin showed in his last fight how he will ‘back off’ a hurt fighter. On the other hand Alvarez demonstrated in his last fight his taste for KILLING his opponent.

    So from a health perspective, Cotto should go with Golovkin.

  • Catch weights was the best way to go for Cotto. Not only is he under the junior middleweight limit for this one, about a pound of that is tattoo ink.

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