WHY MIGUEL COTTO IS A HEAVY FAVORITE SATURDAY
World middleweight (160 lb.) king Miguel Cotto returns to the ring on Saturday for the first time in a year to defend his freshly-won belt, and—unfortunately for boxing fans—Cotto will meet Daniel Geale at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn.
The issue with the fight is not so much Geale, who is a hardworking, fast puncher. The issue is that Cotto, who has earned his stripes in the ring with the biggest names in boxing, simply outclasses Geale. Despite giving up a few inches in both height and reach, Cotto’s overall boxing technique and power is simply too much for Geale.
Premier betting site topbet has Cotto listed at -700 while Geale rests at +450. Lines on boxing matches can get more unbalanced than that, but this is entering the territory where sportsbooks in Vegas simply don’t want to take action on Cotto’s side.
If this fight goes the distance, that in itself will be considered a victory for Geale. Cotto is coming off five-straight victories via KO or TKO, and the power in both of his hands make him devastating in close. It doesn’t help that in Geale’s last loss, he didn’t get past the third round.
Geale has said he will try to play to his strengths, but chances are that even if he can throw solid flurries, Cotto will simply exploit Geale’s weak defense against counters and he’ll get caught on his heels.
If there’s a source of optimism for Geale, it is the sheer amount of time Cotto has been away from the ring since he claimed his belt. A year away from meaningful boxing can add a bit of rust. Yet, given the experience the new member of Roc Nation has, it’s hard to imagine him coming in unprepared.
The reality is that this is likely a preamble for the eventual fight between one of Cotto’s more dangerous challengers, whether that’s Canelo Alvarez or Floyd Mayweather. A quick skirmish to remind pay-per-view buyers why they like Cotto. And Vegas agrees.
WHY MIGUEL COTTO IS A HEAVY FAVORITE