PACQUIAO-CLOTTEY: WHAT A WIN MEANS, AND HOW TO GET IT!
March 12th, 2010 By Brian Gorman
San Francisco, CA- 21st century boxing analysts are nothing if not mercurial and impatient, amplifying the importance of every significant bout. With one big win, a fighter can be catapulted to pound-for-pound status and stardom; but with a loss, the perceived fall can be just as great. Such will be the case Saturday night when Manny “Pacman” Pacquiao (50-3-2, 38 Kos) faces Joshua Clottey (35-3, 20 KOs) at Dallas’ Texas Stadium, aptly entitled “The Event” due to the venue and its featured Filipino performer. For different reasons, the outcome will have lasting impact on each boxer’s career.
PACQUIAO: WHAT A WIN MEANS
A loss for the great Pacquiao would have a far greater effect upon his career, legacy and fortune than will a win; as competent an opponent as Clottey is, he has simply raised the bar too high at this point, with the resume of an all-time-great. Nevertheless, Clottey brings two attributes to the table: a legitimate top five contender as a welterweight (147 lb.), and a welter currently at his physical peak. A win vitiates the argument that Pacquiao hasn’t beaten a top 147 pounder, because Oscar De La Hoya was weight-drained and Miguel Cotto was never a big welterweight who lost a lot that July 2008 night against Antonio Margarito. Further, at this point, Pacquiao could place yet another notch on his list of the present-day elite in order to continue to enhance his Hall of Fame resume. And for us, the fans, he can set the table for what we crave – a showdown with the winner of the May 1 contest between Floyd Mayweather, Jr. and Shane Mosley.
HOW TO GET IT
Pacquiao stands as the odds-on favorite, and for good reason: As good as Clottey is, he doesn’t particularly match up well with the Pacman in terms of style. Therefore, Pac would do well to do what he does well – use extraordinary hand and foot work to move in and out of Clottey’s range, plastering him with a variety of combinations. Clottey can go into a shell and just block punches, and he’ll absorb punches better than Cotto or De La Hoya did, so Pacquiao must show patience and try to slowly bring Clottey out of that shell. If he can’t, he should still win just based on work rate and aggression. If he can, and Clottey doesn’t play his cards right, the only question will be whether the Ghanaian will last until the final bell.
WHAT A WIN MEANS TO CLOTTEY
The upside for Clottey is much greater than for the WBO champ. Should Clottey pull off the upset, he will immediately vault onto everyone’s top ten lists and go to the front of the line – along with Mayweather and Mosley – of the sport’s premier weight class. Viewed as a legitimate contender who has come up short in his biggest fights, Clottey would shed that label and possibly earn a shot at the fame, fortune and opportunity that would come if he gets the Mayweather-Mosley winner. Clottey will never be a household name – he just doesn’t have the charisma or following for that. With a win, though, his name will gain exponentially more recognition. Simply put, Pacquiao should be at least a little worried that, while a win for him doesn’t change his life much, one for Clottey will change his life forever.
CLOTTEY NEED BE HIMSELF!
Despite the style and speed problems Clottey’s up against, it would be a mistake to tell him to be something other than himself. He can’t change who he is now and win at this elite level. Instead, he needs to bring his very best, better than he has before. He comes forward to his opponents with hands high, feeding them an appetite of many right hands and good work to the head and body. He shouldn’t engage in free-swinging exchanges with Pacquiao, since that feeds right into his hands. Ask Juan Manuel Marquez, Ricky Hatton and Cotto, who all got deposited on the canvas for those tactics. Instead, in order to beat the Pacman he needs to become like, well, Pacman – to continue to come forward and gobble up the smaller man. Invest a lot of work to the body in the early rounds, and remember that as great as the Filipino is, he’s susceptible to the right hand, Clottey’s best punch. It’s simple – match your strengths against your opponent’s weaknesses. Clottey’s bigger, stronger and, potentially, tougher. He needs to turn this into a contest about those factors. If he does, he just might pull it off.
THE RESULT OF “THE EVENT” WILL BE…
Clottey has the potential to be a fast starter, like he did against Antonio Margarito, and Pacquiao has only one speed. This could start fast and get even faster, though more likely both fighters will set a deliberate early pace, expecting to go the distance. Clottey will be competitive throughout, but he won’t be able to impose his size on the smaller man, who will continue to dazzle with foot work, hand speed, combinations and always-improving technique under Freddie Roach’s tutelage. Pacquiao will win eight or nine rounds and pull away for the decision.
Brian Gorman
Brian,
The Asain papers are reporting that Clottey is overweight and will have to cut weight, any truth to that?
SKERGE
I mean Asian.
SKERGE
Good article, the popular consensus, but with added insight. It made me think about the reaction from fans and detractors that believe he is taking steroids, if he wins this fight (which he should). I can hear it now. The win had nothing to do with his high skill level, his top trainer, his excellent strength trainer/ nutritionist, his heart, drive and tenacity, it can only be credited to the use of PED’s!! It’s almost a no win situation for him. Very similar to Lance Armstrong.
Oh no, another can of worms!!
Just an FYI for the weight gain theorists: A male, 5′6″ tall, medium build, the weight range is 139 lbs.- 151 lbs. Pacquiao weighed in at 145 3/4 lbs. Nothing unusal about that? If you believe Freddie and Alex,(which I do), he has a hard time maintaining that much weight. They aren’t giving him enough steroids I guess?
admirable piece of writing here at http://ringtalk.com/pacquiao-clottey-what-a-win-means-and-how-to-get-it . Thiking to translating your writing into korean for our visitors. Will let you know after I speak to our writers. many thanks.
very good article. the article is a good take on how clottey or pac can win. keep up the good work and please don’t fall into the garbage the others have been recently writing.
Good article! I liked how you broke down what a win and loss would do for each fighter. I definitely agree with your insight on that. On this fight, I’m a big fan of both fighters, so I’m left with the feeling that unfortunately, one of them has to lose. On another note, I remember not to long ago, fans were salivating over a proposed mosley/clottey fight. I remember many fans seeing it as an even money fight. That obviously has to do with the fact Clottey, at any given time, would be a tough test for ANYONE at welters, and IMO, has never been truly beaten down convincingly. Nobody should be overlooking Clottey. After Cotto/Clottey fought, I thought Clottey was more dangerous than Cotto and Pac caught a lucky break not having to face Clottey, due to Clottey’s defense and resilience. Pac has shown that he has problems against good counterpunchers and good defense. Clottey possesses both skills. If he can withstand Pac’s onslaught (arguably the best offense in boxing), he might be able to impose his size and strength over Pacquiao. Regardless, i just can’t imagine this being a blow out like some are predicting. I believe that this one goes the distance and Pac might have another disputed decision on his hand in which fans are left wanting more!
I don’t agree that Clottey has the wrong style or technical equipment to win the fight. On the contrary, of all fighters Pacquiao has faced since Marquez, Clottey is most capable of simulating Marquez timely step to the left and quick, straigh punches from a tight defense which sometimes picked off Pacquiao’s dart-ins or caught him napping defensively. Clottey’s not as fast as Pacquiao, but he’s quicker than Hatton or Cotto, in a quiet, non-flashy way.
Clottey’s biggest problem is not his style or skill set. It’s his temperament, his obsession with economy and safety. He is not special enough to win the big fights despite this handicap – not without some help, like a major cut or the other guy having a major off night.
By the way I thought Clottey beat Cotto clearly – not resoundingly or impressively, but clearly. But even then, the fight badly exposed his problem of not knowing how to win.
Maybe this time Clottey will realize how lucky he is to get a third shot at greatness despite his boring style and his unsatisfactory effort in the championship rounds vs. Margarito & Cotto. But odds are against it. Low output. cover up & counter type of guys rarely change, they just keep complaining about not getting close decisions.
Obviously I’m going to pick Pacquiao by UD. In the first place Manny has done more than enough lately to earn the benefit of the doubt. Plus it’s never logical to pick a very good fighter over a special one without some very compelling reason to do so. I can see reasons why Clottey could be the toughest fight of Manny’s adult career, maybe even pulling out a win – but there is a gap between what Clottey COULD do and what his track record suggests he WILL do – which is just enough to lose.
Clottey CANNOT and WILL not win. Even if he does win for some bizarre and strange reason, he will get a big money fight, but he WILL never be a star.
When Pac wins, he will be holding all the cards again, and if he wins impressivly he will be the king at the table. I see him struggling with Clottey. In fact I can see him realizing its a tough fight, and then deciding to coast to a victory as he wins on output alone. Saving his fight for another day.
By the way, Clottey’s size might be a big factor, but not neccessarily in his favour.
Clottey’s late round difficulties could be mental. But maybe they are the product of weight loss? It’s been reported that Clottey wears a very fit 160 in the gym. He has a small waist and apparently a genetic gift for cutting weight (although if his name was Pacquiao SOME people would speculate he’s making weight with chemical help…).
But has he gone to 147 a few times to many? Is that why he feels the need to be so conservative with his energy output? The drop-off in the Margarito fight was worse than with Guttierez, and the passivity vs. Cotto was worse than with Margarito (having in mind how little was coming back). He punished but didn’t put away Judah or the shot Corrales (Zab remained in the fight scoring wise although he was mostly got the worst of it damage wise).
If the true cause of this is physical, it’s only going to get worse with time & age.
I don’t understand it, but I see it all the time in boxing:
A fighter in the fight of his life (Clottey), does nothing. Round after round. Does nothing. Why?
BANG!! Try & stop it. BANG! U wanna throw back? BANG! BANG!! BANG!!! Come on. BANG! BANG!! BANG!!! BANG!!! What a despicable display of hbo cheerleading!! But it was funny as f— too!!!
I have to say, Jim Lampley is getting WAY to embarrassing. This guy has been great for HBO Boxing. But, over the past few years, his “fan-standing” is getting way too obvious and a bit too much for me personally. He’s in awe of why Clottey didn’t open up? I mean…really? Everyone could see why Clottey wasn’t opening up. Too much coming at him. “Bang..bang…bang”? What the hell was that? I found myself commentating myself as if I were Jim Lampley rooting for Clottey: “All these punches. Over one hundred punches thrown a round! are you kidding me..you STILL can’t knock the man out! This shows such endurance and poise of Clottey to stand there and just block 70% of manny’s punches. Is Manny losing it Emmanuel?”… sheesh. Time for something fresh!