MONTIEL-DONAIRE: BREAKING IT DOWN “HEAD TO HEAD”

February 19th, 2011 By Kevin Perry

Fernando Montiel

Fernando Montiel

MEXICAN NEEDED RABBIT’S FOOT BEFORE!

Los Angeles, CA- In 2009, the current WBO/WBC bantamweight (118 lbs) champion, Mexico’s Fernando Montiel (44-2, 34KOs) stepped in the ring against awkward and rangy puncher Alejandro Valdez (23-5-3, 17 KOs). The 5’8′ 1/2 Valdez was knocked down in the first round. However in the second, Montiel was dropped by a vicious uppercut, but the referee somehow botched the call and did not administer the mandatory 8-count. Fernando who was cut in the first round (apparently by a punch), luckily escaped a potential loss in the third when the bout was stopped when the cut was made worse by legal blows. In effect, a technical draw was rendered as the fight did not exceed four rounds and the cut was ruled to be caused by an accidental foul.

PHYSICAL ATTRIBUTES FAVOR “FILIPINO FLASH”

Based on the 5’4 Montiel’s apparent difficulty with fighters that are lanky and have a distinct height advantage, (think of his cautious spilt decision loss to the 5’7 1/2 Jhonny Gonzalez (47-7, 41 KOs) in 2006), he should have his hands full with the supremely skilled and dynamic potential Filipino superstar, by way of San Leandro CA, Nonito Donaire
(24-1, 17 KOs) who he faces tonight on an HBO Boxing After Dark broadcast.

ONLY LOSS WAS TO GUY EIGHT LBS. BIGGER AT TIME

Donaire has beaten eight of his last ten foes inside the distance, and his only defeat came in a four rounder in his second fight. He’s been fed a mediocre crop of opponents since his crushing KO victory over heavily favored flyweight (112) champion at the time Vic Darchinyan (35-3-1, 27 KOs). The 5’6′ Filipino uses his height well, and possesses a ramrod jab, quick hands, elite boxing skills, and punching power. Based on these assets, Donaire has a significant edge, and the odds makers who have Donaire a 2 1/2 to 1. The Mexican has been inconsistent throughout his career, struggling with less than elite foes, most notably his war with Columbian puncher Luis Melendez (29-6-1, 22 KOs) in 2007, another fight where the Montiel struggled and received considerable damage in a winning effort. His biggest victory was last year over long reigning WBC bantamweight champion Hozumi Hasegawa (29-3, 12 KOs) in a stunning fourth round KO upset, it was a fight where he was behind on the scorecards. One positive for the Los Mochis native is that he has shown ability to come back from adversity throughout his career. However this Saturday it appears that he will face a pugilist who exceeds him in most categories.

BREAKING DOWN THE PLUSES AND MINUSES

Power: Even

Speed: Slight edge, especially in foot speed for Donaire.

Physical Attributes: Donaire

Defense: Donaire

Chin: Donaire

Technical skills: Donaire

Experience: Montiel

Based on these criteria, most importantly the height advantage, and that Donaire excels at utilizing his height, expect a decisive victory for the Filipino. Due to Montiel’s advanced age (31) for a bantamweight and his somewhat questionable whiskers, expect the younger (28) Filipino to stop the Mexican somewhere around round eight, after what should be a somewhat competitive bout up to that point.

Kevin “KP” Perry

COMMENTS

  1. I don’t think you can automatically give Donaire the chin advantage, Montiel has been down and hurt but he’s also been matched much tougher thruought his career – Donaire’s chin is a matter we will hopefully learn more about tonight assuming Montiel is able to connect well with some powershots.

    Defense is a bigger liability for Montiel, he DEPENDS alot on his chin and recouperative powers because he leaves his chin up, doesn’t compact or weave under punches as a short guy should, and doesn’t have great hand defense. Like Shane Mosley, he eats punches on the point of the chin often taking the max impact and making the punch look real good at the same time. They both tend to measure with the jab and lunge in with lead rights or telegraphed hooks, rellying on fast feet to get in & out from various angles.

    I really thought after the Melendez fight that montiel would come back a damaged remnant of a fighter. I was very surprised that he emerged from it not only physically rejuvinated but also psychologically emboldened to be more of a risk taker.

    Ten Count on February 19th, 2011 at 5:58 PM
  2. I’m going to join the majority in predicting a Donair win based on the styles, physical geometry and some faith in Donaire being a special fighter waiting to emerge (recognizing that it is a faith based on limited evidence agaisnt somewhat tailor-made opponents).

    But I do think that many analysts are far too willing to dismiss the considerable advantage Montiel has in quality and variety of opposition. The memory of his timid and impotent effort against Gonazalez is given too much weight, I believe Fernando has learned from it and made the neccessary change in mindset to not lose in the same way again – as evidenced in the Hasegawa bout by his willingness to takes risks and force an opportunity where one is not freely given.

    None of that changes the fact that Montiel struggles with tall rangy fighters and has some flaws which Donair is perfectly equipped to exploit – the previously mentioned leap-in right hand or the way he unfolds and pulls back his left before throwing a lead hook… the fact he’s a short fighter without much of a crouch and presents his head on more or less the same vertical plane all the time.

    Still if Donair floats or paws with the jab too many times or becomes looked in on landing a KO punch early, he’s likely to catch some hard shots form the best puncher he’s faced to dateand if that happens his chin better be there or he’ll be in trouble.

    If it goes past 5 rounds, I’ll take Donair by a 3 or 4 point decision. If they both elect to gamble and go for broke early, it’s close to 50:50 as to who will emerge with the quick KO, all depends on Donair’s chin.

    Ten Count on February 19th, 2011 at 6:30 PM
  3. it only took 1 counter punch from donaire to TKO montiel…the sky’s the limit to his career now! holy crap, i think i just wet my pants! hahahaha!

    marcus on February 19th, 2011 at 9:22 PM
  4. Montiel was massacred by the Filipino Flash Donaire just minutes ago in the 2nd round!!

    Nonie on February 19th, 2011 at 10:03 PM
  5. BAM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Dude was doing the break dancing move( the catapiler) reverse!!!!! Lol. I told all u that nonito was da man

    Roberto rios on February 20th, 2011 at 12:50 AM
  6. roberto: good one bro! on both counts(joke and ur callon nonito)!

    1200 Techs on February 20th, 2011 at 10:04 AM

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